Choosing a Strategy

Theory of Change

As you weigh the whats and hows, the notion of "theory of change" is a useful one, especially if you are looking at joint work with a variety of partners. "A theory of change describes a process of planned social change, from the assumptions that guide its design to the long-term goals it seeks to achieve." (Grantcraft)

Trying to articulate a theory of change is a valuable way to arrive at consensus on goals and process for your initiative. Each partner can then define its particular role in achieving those goals. It will also help you assess progress (see Anticipating Your Impact).

You have likely heard both the terms "theory of change" and "logic model" and may have heard them used interchangeably. There is, however, a difference between them. In its evaluation guide, "Mapping Change: Using a Theory of Change to Guide Planning and Evaluation" Grantcraft defines them as follows:

"A theory of change takes a wide view of a desired change, carefully probing the assumptions behind each step in what may be a long and complex process. Articulating a theory of change often entails thinking through all the steps along a path towards desired change, identifying the pre-conditions that will enable (and possibly inhibit) each step, listing the activities that will produce those conditions, and explaining why those activities are likely to work. It is often, but not always, presented as a flow chart.

A logic model takes a more narrowly practical look at the relationships between input and results. It is often presented as a table listing the steps from inputs or resources through the achievement of a desired program goal." (Grantcraft)

Developing a theory of change is often a difficult process since it requires you to try to answer tough questions about how your planned activities will create change and to identify those things that you control and those that you don't. Developing a theory of change will help you to consider the following questions:

What is the change we hope to achieve?
What are the steps that will take us there?
Are there factors outside our control that are likely to confound our efforts or stand in the way of change?
Are there things in addition to our planned activities that must take place in order for our goals to be achieved?
Are we being realistic with our timelines?
Do we have the resources we need to do what we want to do?
Will our intervention produce change even after we stop applying resources?

Hamilton Community Foundation created the following diagram to express its theory of change for Phase 2 of its Tackling Poverty Together grantmaking.